Bookraft

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National Geographic September 2004 issue Global Warning: Signs from Earth

Time Magazine April 3, 2006 Special Report Global Warming

Within the past 18 months two distinguished publications, National Geographic and Time Magazine have devoted special reports to the Topic of Global Warming. Now other publications have taken up this topic as well such as New Scientist with excellent coverage of pro and contra cycles, Wikipedia with its host of good references, while PBS has covered the issue from many viewpoints.

But we have chosen to review National Geographic's and Time's special reports because they both have popular reach not only in North America but also to a very respectable international audience. And this is important because Global Warming represents an international problem, in fact one of those intractable Wicked Problems.

Global Warming is wicked first and foremost because it is global in scale and complex in nature. The number of contributing
factors, causal cycles and ecosystems effected requires an enormous amount of work and effort to prove that it is actually
taking place. Worse some of the detailed predictive science of Global Warming is also being worked out - some of the cycles and their interactions are just being revealed. Finally, many of the effects of Global Warming seem benign or at worst, linear. But in fact they are truly non-linear in which case downstream effects become exponentially and catastrophically worse. So the deleterious effects appear benign because of bufferings which delay or diffuse direct immediate consequences or because a tipping point has not yet been crossed. And countercycles, such as Global Dimming due to pollution, have mitigated the effects of Global Warming. Finally, there is a group of Global Warming Deniers who are financed by oil, gas, coal companies and other interests whose products will lose their pre-eminent position in the energy mix - these deniers act as clever lobbyists against any controlling action. These deniers do cite legitimate debate and argue either that all evidence as well as modeling has to be held in abeyance or simply emphasize isolated local contrarian evidence even in the face of general counter evidence which they conveniently fail to cite.

The Wicked Hurdle - "Us"

So as is true of Wicked Problems, Global Warming poses the ultimate challenge to scientists - how to prove to the layman that Global Warming is exacting a toll that endangers mankind or especially vulnerable regions of the World. And do this despite the messages from a rapidly diminishing but still count-them-doubtful scientists who raise credible concerns but do not ignore or denigrate other streams of Global Warming evidence and the deniers who are not doing real science and who consider any and all "spin" methods fair tactics in what they consider to be a Public Relations "game". Some deniers are also "wishful thinkers" - they argue either that evidence is still ambiguous or that Earth's eco-cycles are not well understood - and that a counter, self-correcting cycle, similar to what smog-laden Global Dimming is doing, will be tripped off and restore the World's climate.

The second critical component of Wicked Problems is that no one key party is responsible for the problem - rather collectively and cumulatively we all are and to varying degrees. It is a classic Tragedy of the Commons situation. No one party or small group can be blamed; rather the enemy is "us". It is against this Wicked Problem backdrop that we assess the two reports.

Finally it is important to note that generally "us" do not want to contemplate the consequences of Global Warming, especially "us" in North America who are the most energy prolifigate in the world - consuming more BTU-equivalents per capita by as much as 20% than any other region in the World. This is an 'us' that only wants to spend at most 5-10 minutes per year contemplating the problem of global warming. And as soon as "us" in North America especially hear that there are some nay-sayers - the immediate reaction is to ship this problem off to the back burner. I have got to get my SUV paid for, up and running.

National Geographic: Global Warming - Signs from Earth

Carbon Dioxide Levels Rise . Temperatures Climb . Oceans Warm . Glaciers Melt . Sea Level Rises . Sea Ice Thins . Permafrost Thaws . Wildfires Increase . - these are the first eight of 30 Signs from Earth that are cited in National Geographics opening story page on the nature of Global Warming - punctuated at the end with the question - What in the World Is Going On ? This is followed by 2-page spread pictures of Heating up ... then Melting Down ... followed by a quote from the IPCC- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control report superimposed on another 2-page image of the whole of the Bay of Bengal seeming to swell onto a single Bengladeshi woman's rice field:
"Things that normally happen in geologic time are happening during the span of a human lifetime."

With this introduction, National Geographic splits the story into three parts:
1-Geosigns - shows the direct geologic thawing, melting, and deflected weather patterns in 22 pages of images, graphs and descriptions of what s happening from the Arctic to the Antarctic and all points in between.
2-Ecosigns - details over 22 more pages the effects these climate changes are having on eco systems as diverse as bleached and dead coral reefs, to whole forests in Alaska devastated by beetles who thrive in the warmer springs and summers of the North.
3 - Timesigns - explores over 20 more pages the analysis and forecasting models that are being derived, tested and re-formulated based on the flood of data on global weather conditions supplied from the previously cited Geosigns and Ecosigns.
The conclusions are ten summarized in a 3 page panel showing projected graphs of temperature rising, Ice Melting and thus Sea-levels rising, and finally Weather turning wild wit new extremes for locales throughout the world. In the projections, National Geographic uses averaged data and consensus or most likely projections. They don't show the range of variation in the projections. This has the advanatge of simplicity and a clear understanding of the most likely scenario. But it also clearly and dramatically shows the relationship between the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and temperature fluctuations - they are in near lockstep for at least a thousand years. In sum, the evidence particularly in the images that show before and after - the widespread consequences of global warming

Time: Special Report on Global Warming

Time's report roughly 18 months later starts out almost like an echo of National Geographics. Three two page images first of a polar bear beleagured in the Polar North ice floes so thin they leave barely a place to go - "Polar ice caps are melting faster than ever ..."; then the image of drought in Ethiopia - More and more land is being devestated by drought...", and finally a return to India and Bengladesh where a house is submerged in the runoff to the surrounding sea - "rising waters are drowning low lying communities ...". This is the lead into the special report which starts with a bold statement in big 90point type - By Any Measure, Earth is at The Tipping Point. The climate is crashing, and global warming is to blame. Why the crisis hit so soon - and what we can do about it."

In effect, Time takes the point of view that there is so much consensus among scientists about the nature and seriousness of global warming that the facts have become overwhelming - now the debate is how soon do we need to act. Here is a core sample of what is being said: "Environmentalists and lawmakers spent years shouting at one another, but in the past five years or so, the serious debate has ended. Global warming, even most skeptics have concluded, is the real deal, nd human activity has been causing it. If there was any consolation, it wa that the glacial pace of nature would give us decades or even centuries to sort out the problem. But glaciers, as it turns out, can move with surprising speed and so can nature. What few people recokoned on was that global climate systems are booby-trapped with tipping points and feedback loops, threshholds past which the slow creep of environental decay gives to sudden and self perpetuating collapse. Pump enough carbon ioxide into the sky, and that last part per million of greenhouse gas behaves like the 100th degree celsius that turns a pot of hot water into a plume of billowing steam...'Things are happening a lot faster than anyone predicted,' says Bill Chameides, chief scientist for the adocacy group Environmental Defense and a former professor of atmospheric chemistry. 'The last twelve months have been alarming.' Adds Ruth Curry of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts: 'The ripple through the scientific community is palpable.'"

The very next two pages layout the case of how CO2 and the loss of highly reflective snow and ice cover are accelerating the meltdown and thus increasing the heat of the oceans temperatures and as a consequence unleashing a range of biological and meteorological changes as well. Coral reefs bleach out because water temperatures rise too high, cyclones and hurricanes throughout the world become more extreme in their size and ferocity. Animal migration paterns and even life cycles are upset as we are informed in a sidebar.

But the next two page spread, Vicious Cycles, shows a series of six graphs which illustrate the basic interrelations going on in global warming. At its heart is the greenhouse effect - that rising concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, even comparatively low levels of 320 ppm-parts per million, drive rising temperatures. But even of more import is that there are a series of side cycles, shown in the 5 smaller graphs, that tend to accelerate the basic greenhouse effect. This array of evidence is compelling; but strangely as in the case of National Geographic, the article does not provide a bibliography or links list pointing out the best of the studies and resources used to develop the chars and the overall study.

But Time does what National Geographic did not do - it tackles the problem of "us" head on. With a Time/ABCTV/Stanford University poll, the report tackles the issue of the US public's awareness of the nature of the problem of global warming. Based on the questions asked in a Mrch 2006 poll of 1006 adult Americans, Time concluded that Americans are seeing the problem but not the solution. Here are some key conclusions:
1)More people (85% in 2006 up from 76% in 1997)think Earth is getting warmer, but they are split (roughly 50-50) on wwhether humans are the cause;
2)Most people are not aware of the broad scientific consensus on warming (64% still believe there is a lot of disagreement) and a 54% majority see it as a problem for future generations;
3)yet a strong majority want more done but there is little appetite for higher taxes to reduce or change patterns of energy consumption.
So even here we can see some ambivalence about when and how to go about attacking the problem. For example, I was alarmed to see only 19-31% supported taxes on CO2 energy sources such as coal and gasoline to get people to transition to less damaging energy sources such as solar, wind, hydrogen etc. But the key point is that people understand that "us" and our" consensus on the nature of how to solve the problem of global warming has yet to form - and the Earth is literally burning waiting for those agreements.

The next part, How to Seize the Initative, is weak and People-magazine pop-culture oriented. This section really glosses over the thorny how do we solve the problem - instead we are taken to a aseries of commendable but narrow focus efforts at smart energy conservation. What Time has failed to do is look throughout the world nad show "us" who are the biggest energy consumers, what are the most beneficial actions that can be taken; what are the trade-offs among the various energy contenders? Can one of the most abundant energy resources, coal, be used in novel ways to reduce CO2 emissions? hy can't CO2 be captured at big powerplant outlets and further processed or reduced ? Why doesn't a combo of solar heating and solar cell electricity generation take off in the current housing boom ? Nuclear is clean/dirty - no CO2 emissions but then they generate all that radioactive waste (terrorism danger)including plants that become in 30-90 years time radioactive mausoleums that cannot be dismantled even when they can no longer safely produce power. Does nuclear make sense at all ?

The last part, how the developing world, particularly India and China are likely to put great stress on the ecosystem. This is controversial given that the US has not signed onto the Kyoto accords for CO2 emission reductions. So the US and the rest of the World is asking for conservation by the Chinese and Indians and other developing countries that are beginning to take off - while some major players, US and Canada in particular, have the highest per capita energy consumption and neither has fully committed to the Kyoto Accords already relaxed CO2 emission controls.

Overall Assessment

The two articles pull few punches. Both articles show in picture, articles, and graphs the broad nature of the crisis developing around Global Warming. National Geographic makes much more clear the relationship between CO2 and Global Warming. They also provide a broader set of examples of the effects of Global Warming particularly on animals and local weather patterns. Neither article surprisingly looks at the major contributers to CO2 to the world's atmospheres either by country or by energy source. Neither article provides a strong solution set. Time does a slightly better job here and really tackles the tough issues - a)driving home the idea that there is no longer any doubt in the scientific commnunity about the the seriousness of the problem and b)what "us" think about global warming with its poll and stories about attitudes and moving to solutions throughout the world. However both articles were very remiss in not providing a bibliography and references to their research even if it referred to their own publications and websites. Both editorial staffs have done substantial research so it would be handy and informative to find out what reference books, publications and websites they thought to be most helpful and insightful on this wicked problem. But the bottom line - the overall treatment is well balanced - not too extreme like some of the coverage on Avian Flu; not too strident like some of the advocacy websites - informative, which helps to lead to solutions.

(c)JBSurveyer 2006