Bookraft

The Elephant in the Room in this year's USA midterm elections is not the obnoxious, ornery misbehavior of the GOP as it is about to lose control of the House and likely the Senate in the elections. No, rather it is Globalization - yes the topic covered just below.

Neither party is speaking (okay, okay John Edwards and Lou Dobbs are) about the issue of high paying jobs being exported primarily to India and China but also to emerging economies in Eastern Europe and some parts of the Americas. No, do not touch that topic as good paying, you-worked-your-life-to-learn-the-trade jobs in manufacturing, services, and even professional levels are exported overseas while a dribble of lower wage jobs arrive Back in the USA. The exodus is reflected in the USA's Balance of Trade Deficits of well over half a trillion dollars per year (the USA has been buying more than it can afford for well over a decade). And despite the protestations of the free traders and corporate elites (who have managed to insulate themselves and families from the ravagings of Globalization with golden emblazoned, dirty filthy rich parachutes definitely not Made in China) to the contrary - this outflux of jobs, income and standard of living is going to get worse in the next 3-5 years not better.

So the next 5-10 years are going to be real downers in the West and developed countries because India and China are going to take-off at the expense of good jobs in North America and Western Europe. IBM's recent closure and layoff of 500 of its North American employees despite the fact that they had turned their operation around and become fairly profitable is the proverbial "writing on the wall". There are twice as many graduates in engineering and science from India and China and their wage rates are 25- 40% of North American rates. Their quality is better and their willingness to work overtime for nothing has won every business man that I have talked to that is going to India and China(at least a dozen).

Here is the kicker - waiting in the wings are 1,500 million people in both China and India desperate to get out of poverty wages of $1-2/day that peasant life brings in China and India. Its going to take 4-10 years for India and China's wages to start to equal North America's. One thing that could accelerate that trend is a deep recession in North America as jobs lost overseas are coming back home but at much lower wage rates/positions. My MBA friends are seeing that right now. Their accounting, financial planning even medical expertise are being quietly shipped overseas with no expansion of the local workforce or, as in the case of IBM and dozens of other corporations, outright shipment of jobs overseas. Jobs that will not return until wages realign, if ever. And of course employers know the balance of power has turned in their favor - and so they are demanding more. No wonder the recent Time profile of America as it turns 300 million in population shows that more than 60% of the US population lives in household earning $40,000 or less per year. The missing info ? This is a lot worse than just five years ago.

What Can Be Done ?

First and foremost, find out if I am a raving lunatic.

Google Globalization - that is the code word for outsourcing and offshoring of jobs. If you try "outsourcing" and "offshoring" you run into lots of platitude and garbage sites; but if you are willing to wade through there are some good pages as well. You may want to try ASK.com and its previewing features.

But firmly establish whether or not the the ideas that I am putting forth here have credibility.

Ask others if they see the problem in the same light. Ask what their economic expectations are - for themselves and their children(possibly " to be"). One critical part of that exercise - I know this is going to be like a visit to the dentist - is then to ask your federal politician what he/she thinks about the problem of globalization and what should be done. Hopeless ? Maybe not.

Do not lead with a punch. Wrong=> "Given that NAFTA is a disaster, what do you think of globalization?"

Do not lead with a punch. Wrong=> "Since our borders are so porous, how can we keep any jobs here?"

Do not lead with a punch. Wrong=> "As jobs suck out to overseas destinations, is Lost or Heroes the best show to watch?"

Better => "I know the half a trillion dollar USA trade deficit and annual export of more than 2 million jobs overseas are abstract. But they are also worrying because 2 or 3 of my friends are finding they have to downgrade their skills and take low paying jobs just to make ends meet. What are the 3 most important things you are doing about these problems? "

Best => "I am not worried so much about myself, but I am very worried at my childrens' prospects of finding sustained good paying work. Do you see this as a problem?"

In general, I am asking you to verify that there is indeed an Elephant in the Room.

Then after you discover there is one (I am pretty sure there is because he shat all over me), pray. Pray that there are rational, sane and trusted minds that know of the nature of the problem and are working towards reasonable solutions. Beware of snake oil artists and conmen and conwoemen.

In the next few weeks Bookraft will return to its review of books and writing theme. But we also will be citing some of the better sources on how to deal with the Elephant in the Room. Remember, we could have Pi Patel's Richard Parker (from the book The Life of Pi by Yann Martel, highly recommended as a most entertaining read) in the room.